I attended the bi-annual IT Journalist Conference in the Hunter Valley (dirty job but someone's got to do it). It is a unique forum where about 50 IT journalists have an intensive briefing from about 50 vendors over three days. But its not straight PR - all vendors participate in panel sessions with an analyst, a user and at least a couple of competitors and face a sometimes heated debate and question time.

Politics

We heard from Senator Helen Coonan (Liberal Minister for Communications, Information Technology and the Arts) and Senator Kate Lundy (Labour Shadow Minister for the Arts, Sport and Information Technology). Both are impressive in their own ways but are at opposing ends of the political scale. One thing is for sure that they both want to see affordable high speed broadband access available to all Australians. Coonan had some interesting things to say about promoting "telecommuting" for home workers and helping business to embrace the Internet. Lundy is more forthright (she can afford to be in
Opposition) and has certainly popularised IT issues.
 
So What Are The Next Big Things?

Security

An unprotected PC will be infected within 20 minutes of being connected to the Internet. I tried this and it took just 4 minutes of normal surfing to get a virus. XP Service Pack 2 does add a firewall and patches but that is not enough - sorry.

And analysts at Gartner Group estimate that 40% of all small businesses that manage their own network security are hacked every year. The problem is that more than half don't realise they have been hacked until the damage is done. The chilling fact is that hackers are no longer doing this for kicks - its profit they are after. At least in business it is no longer adequate to rely on constantly updated antivirus software, a low cost firewall (software or hardware) and occasional security patches.

According to Sven Radivics, a 13 year IT security expert from Watchguard http://www.watchguard.com, one of the biggest problems is that there are no definitions as to what constitutes a proper firewall, so many cheap hardware or software ones are simply Network Address Translation (NAT) types or permission based - totally inadequate. Viruses and hackers are more sophisticated now and you need a range of protection measures including a hardware firewall with Stateful Packet Inspection (SPI) and Deep Packet Inspection as well (usually part of a proxy server). In the future there will be further "security holes" caused by Virtual Private Networks (VPN), Voice over IP (VoIP), Instant Messenger, spyware and a host of other new applications for the Internet.

Watchguard doesn't paddle in the home market but provides good solid solutions for small to medium businesses starting at about $3000.

From the consumer perspective security means constantly applying Microsoft security patches, running a hardware SPI and NAT firewall (many routers have this) and keeping AV and spyware programs up to date.

There is an article at http://www.rayshaw.com.au under tips called Safer Computing that covers what a consumer must do.

Symantec's Tim Hartman delivered an Internet Security report too. The key message is that viruses spread a lot faster now and virus writers are getting better. Here is a summary of the major threats to us all.

E-commerce sites are very vulnerable and are prime targets for hackers working for organised crime. Either they place orders with stolen credit cards or try to get a list of credit card number that they can use elsewhere. There is also some "industrial espionage" in some hacks to get your intellectual property. As this mainly affects business they need to be more vigilant and increase security budgets.
 
Keyloggers that can record what you type (credit card numbers, addresses etc) are increasing and identity theft is becoming a major problem.
 
Also growing are e-mail scams that try to get you to buy low cost software or goods but simply record your credit card and delivery details.

Web viruses are also growing and just by your visiting a Web site malicious code can be run on your unprotected PC. Your PC could become an open relay mail server, or worse.
 
There is also a major increase in "bot" attacks - little programs scanning the Web to find unprotected PCs and exploit them.

Future viruses will specifically target firewalls, antivirus and spyware detection programs aiming to disable them, so a hardware firewall is a better choice.

Big risks come from using peer to peer file sharing programs like Kazaa, Grokster etc., and Internet relay chat as these usually bypass the firewall.
 
Adware, malware, spyware and browser help objects are now one of the biggest threats. Antivirus companies are finding it difficult to stop these as many are disguised as programs that users willingly install.
 
And don't think that by using Linux or Mac you will escape. More viruses are now targeting this market.

Phishing is also a major threat. It is run by organised crime specifically to steal your identity. AV programs can do little about this. So don't give your personal or credit card details over the Net. One exception is that it's fine to use the Net to pay bills, especially if they use a 3D verified system.

Port Knocking is a new phenomenon where traffic is observed coming and going from a PC and it searches for a "key" to open a port. There is no protection against this yet.
 
Finally mobile devices are at risk. Although there are few specific viruses these devices are seen as a "backdoor" to corporate networks and are a target.

Not a happy scenario at all.
 
Convergence - Coming to a TV Near You

Microsoft will soon launch its Media Centre Edition of XP. It promises to be a simple interface between TV, VCR, stereo, PC, internet, home security - you name it, all wrapped up in one PC based device.

We will see an explosion of these all in one devices ideally suited to the lounge rooms of our country. Of course low cost, high speed, broadband is the real key to its success but that won't be long coming for many Australians. There are experiments now with 6 MB/s ADSL, fibre optics, satellite, Wi-Max radio and VDSL (25 MB/s) broadband - all only a few years away.
 
Toshiba has announced that it will have a digital entertainment gateway in the near future. It will have TV (both analogue and HD), DVD and hard disk recording, Dolby HiFi and a PC -probably at all under $3000 including a nice LCD screen.

The key to all these devices is that most of the interaction is done with a standard remote controller so you don't have to be a PC expert to watch TV or record to hard disk. WiFi in the home will allow the media centre to pipe music or TV to other similar PC based entertainment units.

Mobile Broadband

iBurst www.iburst.com.au is already delivering mobile anytime, anywhere broadband (ADSL standard 1Mb/256Kb) in Sydney and is rolling out services to Brisbane, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Canberra and WA. When completed it is anticipated that the network will provide coverage for over 75% of the Australian population and over 90% residential and commercial coverage.

It is currently a little expensive (Ozemail's price is $199 per month flat rate) but it is hotly tipped that we will see the price come back to close to normal ADSL costs.

This technology seems to be the one that will deliver over the next few years until Wi-Max standards are sorted out. I saw it in action on a coach travelling at 100 kph on the Pacific Highway about an hour outside Sydney and it is truly amazing.

Small to medium business will be a target. According to the stats there are 682,000 small businesses employing under 50 people (about 400,000 employing under 5 people) who need to embrace the Internet. We are seeing an explosion in providers to this field.

Small businesses do not understand the jargon - they want packaged, proven solutions that are easy to implement, don't need ongoing support and won't break down.

For example Microsoft has its Small Business 2003 Server software that can run almost all a businesses needs on one low cost server. And if you are not yet ready to commit to Microsoft then there are a host of stand alone network attached storage devices, print servers, Internet routers and more products aimed at this level of business - all removing a lot of the angst of smaller peer to peer networks.

RFID

RFID is an acronym Radio Frequency Identification - small transmitters will eventually replace barcodes as a way of tracking goods.

It has raised a lot of questions over privacy - for example when you wear clothes with an active RFID tag into a store they will know the brand and type of clothes you are wearing and adjust their sales pitch accordingly.

But RFID is the way of the future as it will reduce theft, reduce time consuming stock takes and enable you to walk through shopping checkouts automatically debiting your credit card for purchases.

At present the cost is a little prohibitive - at least $5 per tag but in the future it will drop to a matter of cents.
 
It is already being used to track cattle, fruit and veg, library books and some retail items. There is a good read at http://www.rfidjournal.com/faq.

VoIP - Voice Over Internet Protocol

For some time now it has been possible to speak at no or low cost over the Internet with reasonable quality using programs like Skype and Netmeeting. But VoIP is maturing and it is the next big thing for both home and business.
 
For the home user it will be as simple as connecting a low cost VoIP "phone" to your broadband connection and dialling a normal phone number which is then connected to the recipient via an Internet gateway - at a cost of a mere few cents per minute. Netcomm demonstrated such a device although it won't be available for a few months yet.

Bigger business can chose from suppliers like Telstra, Nec, Avaya, Alcatel etc., but these are full on solutions. Smaller businesses can access VoIP from Vodtel http://www.networkbroadband.com.au/vodtel/default.asp at much lower costs.

Reprinted from the November 2004 issue of PC Update, the magazine of Melbourne PC User Group, Australia

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