It's not quite David versus Goliath — more like Prince Naseem going up against Muhammad Ali. The processing punch packed by computer heavyweights is being taken on by a featherweight breed of laptops, in a precursor to a changing of the guard.

In the third quarter of last year, for the first time in history, more laptops than desktops were shipped around the globe. According to Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst for computer platforms at research firm iSuppli, this well and truly heralds the start of the age of the notebook, with laptop shipments reaching 38.6 million units after a 40% jump over the previous year's
corresponding period.

"Momentum has been building in the notebook market for some time, so it's not a complete surprise that shipments have surpassed those of desktops," Wilkins says.

Leading the charge for this growth, appropriately enough, is a computer aimed at the everyman - or everywoman, for that matter. It's the netbook, those tiny laptops that start at a screen size of just seven inches, and come with a price to match. With the bidding opening at around $300, it's little wonder that an estimated 14 million netbooks were sold last year.

Asus was first on the scene with its Eee PC in November 2007. According to reports, the company greatly underestimated the response to its no-frills offering, which promptly sold out on the first day it hit stores. Today, every major laptop maker has its thumb in the netbook pie, with the exception of Apple, but even computing's luxury marque is loathe to issue a flat-out denial. In addition to price, the netbook's appeal is obvious. In a package that belies its size, perfectly suited to portability, you have an almost full-powered computer. But is a netbook the right fit for you?

A study conducted by the NPD Group, a US-based retail research firm, found that netbook owners are more likely to be disappointed with their purchases than people who purchased pricier, larger laptops. In a survey of 600 adults, 58% of consumers who bought a netbookrather than a notebook were satisfied, compared to 70% who intended to buy a netbook all along. It appears the disappointment largely stems from users expecting the two to have similar functionality - NPD analyst Stephen Baker says six out of 10 netbook buyers thought they were equivalent.

"Retailers and manufacturers shouldn't be putting too much emphasis on PC-like capabilities that could convince consumers that a netbook is a replacement for a notebook," advised Baker in a recent Cornputerworld article. "Instead, they should be marketing mobility, portability and the need for a companion PC to ensure consumers know what they are buying and are more satisfied with what they purchase."

When it comes to netbooks' limitations, it would seem that forewarned is forearmed. Computer salesman Andrew Lye, 27, is a recent convert to netbooks - and a huge fan. His work takes him as far afield as Thailand and China, and his netbook is now the first thing he packs.

"I actually needed something small and light to carry around; something for email, Skype, and minor word processing. It was meant to be my supplementary computer, but the way I carry it around and use it, it seems to be the main computer now!" he says. "I like the way I can just whip out my netbook and check my outlets' closed-circuit cameras, and access my headquarters' servers. It's even faster when I'm in countries with high-speed internet connections, such as China."

However, Mr. Lye was well aware of his netbook's limitations before purchasing it. He points out that netbooks' general lack of processing power can be a problem, especially when it comes to running multiple programs simultaneously.

"The keyboard isn't as big as it normally would be, and the netbook gets really hot, enough to make it shut down sometimes. Because it's so small and light, it's also easily stolen," he adds. Fashion blogger Phoebe Montague, 29, found a netbook to be ideal for her work, which sees her often on the move. "I decided to get a netbook because I do a lot of traveling, and they are perfect for anyone that needs to take their computer with them in a hurry – it literally folds up and fits in a handbag," she says.

However, when Ms. Montague needs to use more resource-intensive software, she switches to her more powerful desktop. "It's not ideal to use as a primary computer, as once you start using more memory it does slow down processing a bit. If I have to do a lot of Photoshop work I use my other computer, but for basic word processing and browsing it's always going to be my netbook."

So should you buy one? You need to know exactly what you're getting before you make that decision. The smaller keyboard might take some getting used to, and you're paying for convenience, not power. With an emphasis on portability and affordability, sacrifices are bound to have been made somewhere along the line, so if you don't plan to be on the go, chances are a netbook might not really suit you. This is a particularly important consideration – the same NPD study found that 60% of those surveyed found that once their netbook got home, it never left the house.

It doesn't help that manufacturers are doing their best to blur the lines between netbooks and notebooks. Most netbooks now sport screens of up to 10 inches, and come packed with features including Bluetooth and webcams. The increased screen sizes also mean larger keyboards, for those with less than dexterous digits.

Perhaps the answer lies in not choosing between a netbook and a more powerful counterpart, but selecting one of each. Photographer Luanne Ng, 27, offers an intriguing parallel with her profession. "It used to be that DSLR (Digital Single-lens Reflex) users would turn their noses up at smaller, pocket-sized cameras with less functionality," she says. "But it's more and more common to see even professional photographers buying one camera for work and a smaller one for play or social events - and suddenly, the fact that it can fit into a pocket is a major part of the appeal. It's exactly the same with netbooks, you've got horses for courses."

They've already made an impact on the industry, with suggestions that the rise of netbooks could be the death knell for Microsoft. In January, the computer technology giant blamed the continued shift to lower-priced netbooks, as well as continued weakness in the PC market, as the main reasons for its 8% decline in customer revenue.

Add the proposed National Broadband Network into the mix, and suddenly the balance of power seems to tip even further. As web-based computing or cloud computing is made even more viable by turbocharged data connections, there's less reason to throw cash at powerful processors. In the US, AT&T may well have stolen a march on the future following an announcement that it was offering free netbooks as incentives for internet service plans. Japan's already on board with this tactic; how soon before Australia follows suit?

Indeed, this is why some industry observers feel that the focus should be less on upping hardware performance in the netbook context and more on providing simple, cheap internet access. Price and portability are the two areas that helped the category achieve escape velocity in the first place, and ironically, whether or not Apple joins the fray, the rise of the netbook has much in common with its corporate ethos – if it's sleek, affordable, well-designed and chic, it's a winner.

Reprinted from the August 2009 issue of PC Update, the magazine of Melbourne PC User Group, Australia

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