 The magazine of the Melbourne PC User Group 700 days to Y2K... Tom Coleman |
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Here we are at the dawning of the age of Aquarius. PCs are about to enter
the new century. All kinds of "bind moggling" whizz-bangery. The optimists among us see a new age, where
computers take over all those tasks that we used to do. Today we can see the signs of greater things to come.
Already computers lose files without any user input. Once upon a time I could only do that by mistake.
However, the fundamentals of computing, like the laws of physics, do not change. For example, the vast
majority of users can easily fit all their essential software on a 1 GB hard disk. In fact most of them can
fit it on a hard disk half that size. However, hard disks keep getting bigger. In order to fill this
ever-increasing junk room, the software writers write fatter and fatter programs. Remember that Coleman's
Law of Hard Disks still prevails: "All hard disks are the same size regardless of their capacity, because
they are all nearly full and have the same amount of usable free space." For this to remain true in this age
of expanding hard disks you need more junk and fatter files. It's bigger than both of us. We might as well
submit.
Only the pessimists and, it seems, most journalists, still believe in the Millennium Bug. At least as far as
PCs are concerned. Most of the PCs that have been sold in the past two years are Y2K-compliant. Some of the
earlier ones may or may not be. Considering that the computer that you buy today is going to be obsolete junk
in three years, if you have a problem in the year AD 2000 you will not get much sympathy. What else do you
expect from a clunky old Pentium 200?
Mind you, the Millennium Bug is a terrifying reality for mainframe systems. Many of them are running
30-year-old software that has been randomly patched and modified by various programmers, and worse still,
half of the original COBOL source code no longer exists. Someone lost it. They have big problems. PCs don't
have problems, but you might have some if you choose to fly, bank money, get insured, forward freight or
generally do business with a mainframe after the year 2000. Your pension, unemployment benefit and medical
benefits are included. They are all on mainframe computers.
Getting all the mainframers to solve their problems before the end of the 20th century is like asking
industry to stop emitting CO2. The reality is that it won't happen. They will find it easier to patch up the
damage as it occurs. Higher sea walls, relocate farms, higher refugee status for Pacific Islanders whose
homes are below sea level and so on...
Just as you should be shedding your South Pacific real estate holdings, so you should be getting out of any
dealings with companies that you do not know are Y2K-proof. You realise that the oil companies use
mainframes. Buy a push bike. Save the Pacific Islands. It helps not to fart, too.
One way to avoid a problem is to give it to some-one else. Computer salesmen do that by offering
Manufacturer's Warranty. You do not pay the manufacturer. You pay the salesman. The warranty is his problem.
The rest of it is waffle to avoid having to deal with you personally. So it is with CO2 emissions and the
Millennium Bug.
If every country in the world was to ignore Kyoto and carry on regardless, the average global temperature
would rise by 1.6 degrees Celsius by 2050. On the other hand if we were all to cut back to 1990 levels now,
the temperature in 2050 would have risen by 1.4 degrees. And if Australia were to totally cease all CO2
production now and for ever, it would make no significant difference globally by 2050.
However it would relieve some local smog.
In other words we are going to have to go into damage control mode anyway. Regardless of how good and green
we are, we have a problem. Getting your knickers in a knot over the Millennium Bug is a waste of energy. As a
PC owner you don't really have a problem unless you are running some obscure 25-year-old bit of purpose-built
software. Then you and your software may have a problem, but your PC won't have one. That does not mean that
you are not going to get caught up in other people's problems.
It may be too hard and too expensive for some mainframers to fix their Millennium Bugs; simply going into
damage control after the event may be a more attractive option for them. Particularly if the Board of
Directors is not very computer literate, or is even intimidated by computers.
On the other hand the Millennium Bug might be like the Michelangelo Virus.
Remember?
Reprinted from the February 1998 issue of PC Update, the
magazine of Melbourne PC User Group, Australia
