Are computer user groups dying? Looking at Melb PC, you would not think so, but this is the perception all over the world. Melb PC is an exception only because we are our own ISP and over 60 percent of our members subscribe to it. Why are user groups in decline?

Without doubt, the Web is the main reason, although nobody has proven this in a scientific manner. When I first signed on as Editor of PC Update back in 1988. I recall many members who were professional software developers and who would come to our monthly meetings and ask esoteric questions during Random Access. When Bill Gates came to speak to us in 1989 at the Rialto theatrette, he caught a tram back to wherever he was going. Computer companies did not communicate well with users, who were left to their own devices and some commercial magazines for knowledge. We sold shareware for $10 per 360 KB diskette and had a two-line BBS. User groups were exciting places then because most users were enthusiasts (nerds?) who were having the time of their lives, communicating in person.

Bill Gates is now so busy that he schedules brief interviews in his limousine between two engagements. I needn't waste space outlining other advances in the late 1990s, but it scans that the professional PC users have outgrown generic user groups such as ours. They have moved on to developer user groups, which are sometimes a marketing exercise on behalf of the software vendor. Interestingly enough, our recent member surveys say that we have very few novice users amongst us. Most of our members come from the engineering, teaching, and health sectors. Most of our new members have been referred by an existing member.

Why are other groups in decline and what is the relevance to us? At my previous job I had the opportunity to visit many capital cities and New Zealand. Sometimes I had the freedom to time my trips to coincide with the committee meetings of other groups. The user groups all had energetic leaders, comprehensive newsletters and busy BBSs. Some of those groups sneered at our "commercial" initiatives, either out of jealousy or because their leaders or advertisers had a conflict of interest.

Some volunteers have performed their tasks as a hobby, which can be put aside for much of the year. Surveys are taken; the findings are largely ignored; then it is time to conduct a new survey. The value of publicity and marketing is heartily endorsed by all but nobody has the time to lend a hand.

Equally, vendors have been merging or disappearing. Microsoft Office has around 92 percent market share, so few people bother to look for alternatives to office software. While there are other software categories, one needs to examine the member demographics to see that our ageing population is unlikely to be the target audience of a vendor. Melb PC's s urvey respondents had a mean age of 51, which is not too old; some overseas groups are made up entirely of retirees and get very little attention from the vendors.